DP Math AI · HL · Statistics and Probability

AHL 4.14—Linear transformation of a single RV, E(X) and VAR(X), unbiased estimators

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Notes

Introduction to Linear Transformations of Random Variables

A <strong>linear transformation</strong> of a random variable is one of the most powerful tools in probability and statistics , it lets us rescale, shift, and combine random variables while keeping our calculations tractable.

Linear Transformation of a Random Variable: For a random variable X, a linear transformation takes the form aX+b, where a and b are real constants. The constant a is a scale factor and b is a shift (translation).

Linear transformations appear constantly in real-world contexts:

  • Converting temperatures from Celsius to Fahrenheit: F=1.8C+32
  • Converting units (e.g., cm to inches)
  • Applying a fixed markup or tax to a random price

The key results for a single random variable X are:

E(aX+b)=aE(X)+b
Var(aX+b)=a2Var(X)

These two formulas form the foundation of this subtopic. Understanding why they work, and how to apply them carefully, is essential for HL exam success.

Analogy

Think of X as a factory's daily output (random). If you multiply every outcome by a (change the unit price) and add b (a fixed daily overhead), the average output scales by a and shifts by b , but the spread only changes with a, not b, because b shifts everything equally.

Expected Value of a Linear Transformation

The expected value (mean) of a linear transformation of a random variable X satisfies:

E(aX+b)=aE(X)+b​

This result follows directly from the linearity of expectation , one of the most important principles in probability theory.

Proof sketch (discrete case):

E(aX+b)=∑x​(ax+b)P(X=x)=a∑x​xP(X=x)+b∑x​P(X=x)=aE(X)+b

Since all probabilities sum to 1, the b term simply contributes b⋅1=b.

Note

This formula is valid for both discrete and continuous random variables. The linearity of expectation does not require independence.

Example

Unit conversion example:

Suppose the height X of a randomly selected student (in cm) has E(X)=170 cm. We convert to inches using the transformation Y=0.3937X.

E(Y)=E(0.3937X)=0.3937×170=66.93 inches

Now suppose there is also a fixed platform of height 2 inches, so Y=0.3937X+2:

E(Y)=0.3937×170+2=66.93+2=68.93 inches

Warning

A common error is to write E(aX+b)=aE(X) and forget the constant b. The shift b does affect the expected value , it shifts the entire distribution.

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10 more sections in this topic

← Previous topicAHL 4.13—Non-linear regressionNext topic →AHL 4.15—Central limit theorem
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